Monday, August 12, 2024

USPS Required Financial Self-Sufficiency Collides with Congress’ Insistence That No USPS Jobs Get Eliminated.

 

USPS Financial Self-Sufficiency Requirement Collides with Congress Members’ Insistence That No USPS Jobs Get Eliminated.

 “A federal job position and its location are not guaranteed to be available for the life of the current occupant.”

Michael A. Mazzocco
mamazzocco.blogspot.com
Copyright August, 2024

 

The USPS is an awkward situation.  It is a division of the Executive Branch. It is required to operate as a financially self-sustaining operation without financial assistance from the federal budget. It currently operates with about $82 billion in revenue, which is about one-fourth the cost of the recent USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its air wing of 70-80 airplanes, not including their development costs.  The USPS has been facing a long decline in volume of small pieces of mail and first-class letters, as so many of these items are sent electronically in modern times. Think of catalogs, bills, bill payments, and bank statements, just to name a few.  Meanwhile, competition is hot for the more lucrative package shipping and delivery market.  UPS, Fed-Ex, and Amazon have not asked if they can operate a brick-and-mortar retail business establishment in each and every zip code in the United States, from which they must deliver mail to every address, in competition with USPS.

 

Background

Without delving into the back-story too much, here are a few pointers for understanding how we got to where we are.  First, congressional actions:

·       Postal Reorganization Act of 1970. Shut down the U.S. Postal Department and opened the U.S. Postal Service under the Executive Branch. Requires USPS financial self-sufficiency, covering all of its expenses with its own revenue.

·       Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act (PAEA) of 2006. This law imposed unique financial burdens on the USPS, such as the requirement to pre-fund retiree health benefits decades into the future, which has been a significant factor in the financial challenges faced by the USPS.  At the time, USPS retirees were free to choose among private retiree medical insurance and not required to participate in Medicare, increasing the cost of this feature by a substantial amount.

·       2010 Appropriations and Emergency Funding.  During the financial crisis of the late “oughts,” Congress provided a one-time $4 billion loan and deferred some of the retiree medical coverage pre-funding.

·       2020 COVID-19 Pandemic Funding (CARES Act 2020). The CARES Act provided $10 billion in funding to the USPS. This was structured as a loan from the U.S. Treasury.  Later, the terms of the loan were modified to convert it effectively into a grant, meaning the USPS was not required to repay the funds.

·       American Rescue Plan Act (2021).  Although the American Rescue Plan Act did not provide funding to the U.S. Postal Service, it did provide support for increased package volumes and revenue for USPS.

·       Postal Service Reform Act of 2022.  While this act did not provide funding for the USPS, it did eliminate the requirement to pre-fund all retiree health benefits and it integrated postal service retirees into Medicare, saving quite a bit in future expenses.

Next, let us consider the breadth of the USPS operation.  Traveling through any and many very small towns, one can easily encounter a surprisingly large, often upscale, building in small towns, in which the USPS services are expected to be the same for their zip code as it is for anyone else, no matter how many people live in the area covered by the zip code.  Remarkably expensive when sales volume in such areas is very low.  Yes, for USPS, expected to cover its own expenses, it must be looked at as Sales Volume. It is easy to see that so many one-zip code installations are money losing operations.  That financial loss has to be recovered from somewhere else according to the Postal Reorganization Act of 1970.

Now, let us turn to the American tradition of “labor-saving devices.”  The concept of capital-labor substitution is as old as economics itself.  In the modern era, scanners, logistics optimization of routing, high-speed package handling, and many more remarkable technologies have reduced the need for so many USPS handling facilities and local buildings with service counters.  These technologies have also reduced the need for so many postal workers, providing a payroll savings to the financial losses from some of the items mentioned here.

 

The Current Congressional Situation

The current Congress, led in part by my own beloved and supported-by-me-despite-this-issue Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), is circulating an idea that The Rest of Us (what you may call taxpayers, but I call The Rest of Us) are expected to protect federal jobs in the USPS no matter the cost or how ridiculous the financial burden on the USPS becomes.  I have never thought a position within the Federal payroll was a form of employment protected from obsolescence.  Especially when Nikki isn’t going to fund these obsolete workers by asking The Rest of Us to chip in, but is still expecting the USPS to be financially self-sustaining with two arms tied behind its back; one in the form of market circumstances while facing service mandates, and the other in the form of legacy patronage hiring requirements within an obsolete HR roster.

Nikki, please tell your brothers and sisters up there on Capitol Hill to get out of the way.  The Rest of Us do not see all current USPS jobs as protected species. No one is entitled to an obsolete federal job, and you (collectively) are not entitled to require needless increased expenses in the management of a U.S. Service of the Executive Branch that you are requiring to cover its own expenses.  Think about this: “We, the Congress, require you cover your own costs and we simultaneously demand you incur needless costs.”  Get out of the way.  Let the USPS consolidate service centers for mail handling, for retail service to multiple zip codes from one location, and for whatever is necessary in the face of current conditions. Get out of the way.

I’m still voting for you come November, Congresswoman Budzinski.  But you have to use more common sense in examining all the facts together.  A federal job position and its location are not guaranteed to be available for the life of the current occupant.

 

 

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

The Clouded Carbon Promise of Electric Cars

The Clouded Carbon Promise of Electric Cars

Michael A. Mazzocco
mamazzocco.blogspot.com
Copyright February, 2018


For some time (a decade, perhaps), I have questioned the environmental costs and benefits of electric cars.  It started with three fundamental, casual observations, none of which I had yet analyzed objectively:
  1. The perception that the benefit to owners of electric cars is their ability to say “we don’t pollute HERE (We pollute elsewhere and ship the energy in.  shhh! Don’t tell anyone.).”
  2. The environmental hazard of a spent electric car battery is enormous.  A serious quantity and concentration of toxic materials. And they need to be replaced periodically throughout the life of the vehicle.
  3. The contribution of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere just might be greater for electric cars than it is for gasoline-ethanol blend (E10) cars because of the loss of energy in electricity transmission and distribution. 

I recently received a report from my power company telling me that their sources of power (53% coal- and oil-fired, 21% natural gas-fired, 16% nuclear, 9% wind and hydro) resulted in the emissions of 1,381 lbs. of carbon dioxide per 1,000 kWhs (kilo Watt hours).  I looked at my bill and discovered that I am emitting about 1,400 lbs. of CO2 per month in the winter months.  This caused some introspection, to say the least, especially when I multiply that number times the number of households in the country, the continent, or the energy-consuming world.[1]

It motivated me to resurrect the electric-versus-E10 emissions question.  I came up with the following analysis.

Beginning with item 3. above, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory reports that in 2016 (the latest graphic available in my limited search) there were 37.5 kWhs of electricity generated nationally for every 12.6 kWhs delivered to residential, commercial, and industrial users.  That is a ratio of 2.98 kWhs generated per 1.0 kWhs delivered.[2]  Most of the rest is lost in transmission. These numbers appear to be relatively constant over recent years.  So about 2 units of electric energy are wasted for every unit that is delivered, on average in the U.S., mostly a result of the delivery system.   Note that the sources of electric power closely resemble those reported to me by my power company.

 Next, I wanted the answer to “what is the electricity consumption of a Tesla automobile in kWhs per mile and per year.  Tesla is widely recognized as an innovative designer and manufacturer of electric cars.  The answer from Wikipedia, which was probably submitted by someone in the industry, is as follows: “The EPA rated the 2017 90D Model S's energy consumption at 200.9 watt-hours per kilometer (32.33 kWh/100 mi or 20.09 kWh/100 km) …  .”  [3]   That is a useful number.  

Next let us assume a person drives 15,000 miles per year, a number I got from a few places.  That means that the following equation estimates the lbs. of CO2 emitted by the Tesla Model S per year, regardless of where it was emitted:

32.33 kWhs delivered /100 mi. * 1,381 lbs. CO2/1,000 kWhs generated * 2.98 kWhs Generated/1 kWhs delivered * 15,000 miles/year

= 19,958 lbs. CO2/year from Tesla Model S.[4]

To compare the same CO2 output from an E10 vehicle, we need some estimate of miles per gallon (I’ll use 25) and an estimate of CO2 production per gallon of E10. The U.S. Energy Information Administration tells us that number is 17.6 lbs. CO2 per gallon of E10.[5]  Thus, the equation forms like this:

17.6 lbs. CO2/gallon E10 * 1 Gallon E10 / 25 miles * 15,000 miles/year

= 10,560 lbs. CO2/year from E10.

What is the result?  The so-called “clean energy alternative” car results in the emission of nearly twice as much CO2 as an average car with an internal combustion engine.  And the electric car dumps its emissions where the power is generated, not where it lives, resulting in a negative externality on the people living near the generation plant. Eventually (quickly) the CO2 will spread to a more uniform distribution within the atmosphere, resulting in no net gain to the electric car drivers from dumping their initial pollution elsewhere.  And there is the matter of those toxic spent batteries to contend with.

I don’t intend to pick on one car company.  Rather, Tesla and others have made great strides in technology and continue to search for improvements in energy conversion and should be commended for their efforts.  Also, this is not a complete life cycle analysis of carbon in the comparative systems.  One could argue that the CO2 produced by a diesel tanker delivering the E10 to the gas station should be added to the analysis.  Or how much energy was used in petroleum refining or coal mining and transportation.  And those incremental additions to what should be included could go on and on, which is why people conduct life cycle analyses.  But this review does raise questions about the global impact of eating locally while polluting elsewhere, especially at twice the rate.[6]   It appears the big impact will come from consuming less energy.








[1] First objective observation on human contribution to greenhouse gasses.
[2] https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/docs/2016_United-States_Energy.pdf
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S
[4] Take that, you people who say you have no use for algebra!
[5] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=307&t=11
[6] For fun, multiply the CO2 output times the number of cars. You will get to the second objective observation on human contribution to greenhouse gasses.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

A Demographer's View of 2020


I was reminded that I had not made a contribution for a while.
On Dec. 16, 2009, I participated in a “webinar” sponsored by Crain’s  Chicago Business dealing with the (then) upcoming 2010 Census and what trends will take place in the Chicago metroplex for the next 10 years (2010 – 2020), as seen by the founder of American Demographics magazine.  Here are my notes from that demographer’s insights.  Despite the obvious Chicago focus, there are significant implications for rural communities contained in this forecast.  
  1. Boomers are competitive new grandparents, spoiling their grandchildren with lots of expensive things – even private school tuition – to help them get ahead at an earlier age. Expect high growth of affluent grandparents.
  2. Reversal of urban sprawl, as boomers in far-reaching areas of the metroplex (Dekalb, western Kane County, etc.) re-urbanize to avoid the time and money of driving. Two-thirds of 8.1 million metroplex people will live in Cook County/Chicago.  The next decade will be focused on Cook County and City of Chicago.
  3. Walkable new places.
  4. Pets pets pets pets (my emphasis).  Lots of spending on pets.
  5. Travel and travel support (travel clothes, away-care services, etc.)
  6. Revolving retirement (sounds a little like me already!).  Work some; quit; work some; quit.
  7. Multiple home ownership – both need to be furnished.  More weekend condos in the city.  More weekend homes in the country. More home care and security services at both ends (suburbs AND city; at least one home is vacant).
  8. 65-74 year old bracket of 2015-2020 will not be in poverty like previous generation. 51% growth in this demographic segment from 2010 to 2020.
  9. 55-64 year old bracket: 19 % growth 2010 to 2020.  Segment traditionally with highest assets.  42% of population.
  10. 45-54 year old bracket also growing.  Segment traditionally with highest income.
  11. 25-34 year old bracket will have decreasing out migration to other parts of U.S.
  12. 75 + segment: 20% growth 2010 to 2020.
  13. Wealth management business likely to increase.
  14. People who live alone will be largest household type in Chicago and U.S. Unknown future of social interactions, which requires some study.
  15. By 2010 women are dominant segment of households (> 51%).  Women are more likely to pay bills on time.
  16. 2 million Chicago area children are the most ethnically diverse in the U.S. and will be forming households over the next ten years.
  17. Significant change in leisure preferences. Golf will be on a downward trend due to time commitment.  Bicycling will be on an upward trend.
  18. More Boomer startups by college educated – they like to work.
  19. Chicago city growth will be higher than NY and LA, but not by much.  Chicago area growth will be slower than most other metro areas.  This means targeting specific segments will be more important than ever. Concept of “average Chicagoan” or “average U.S. citizen” becomes useless.
  20. New solutions (such as Zip Cars) are likely to be introduced.  Social marketing mechanisms likely to increase (> 51% live alone and their friends are on line).
  21. Key future decisions:  Immigration policy has a huge impact on Chicago.  Corporate HQ location decisions.

Happy motoring,

Mike