I was reminded that I had not made a contribution for a while.
On Dec. 16, 2009, I participated in a “webinar” sponsored by
Crain’s Chicago Business dealing with
the (then) upcoming 2010 Census and what trends will take place in the Chicago metroplex
for the
next 10 years (2010 – 2020), as seen by the founder of American Demographics
magazine. Here are my notes from that demographer’s insights.
Despite the obvious Chicago focus, there are significant implications for
rural communities contained in this forecast.
- Boomers are competitive new grandparents, spoiling
their grandchildren with lots of expensive things – even private school
tuition – to help them get ahead at an earlier age. Expect high growth of
affluent grandparents.
- Reversal of urban sprawl, as boomers in far-reaching
areas of the metroplex (Dekalb, western Kane County, etc.) re-urbanize to
avoid the time and money of driving. Two-thirds of 8.1 million metroplex
people will live in Cook County/Chicago. The next decade will be
focused on Cook County and City of Chicago.
- Walkable new places.
- Pets pets pets pets (my emphasis). Lots of
spending on pets.
- Travel and travel support (travel clothes, away-care
services, etc.)
- Revolving retirement (sounds a little like me
already!). Work some; quit; work some; quit.
- Multiple home ownership – both need to be furnished.
More weekend condos in the city. More weekend homes in the
country. More home care and security services at both ends (suburbs AND
city; at least one home is vacant).
- 65-74 year old bracket of 2015-2020 will not be in
poverty like previous generation. 51% growth in this demographic segment
from 2010 to 2020.
- 55-64 year old bracket: 19 % growth 2010 to 2020.
Segment traditionally with highest assets. 42% of
population.
- 45-54 year old bracket also growing. Segment
traditionally with highest income.
- 25-34 year old bracket will have decreasing out
migration to other parts of U.S.
- 75 + segment: 20% growth 2010 to 2020.
- Wealth management business likely to increase.
- People who live alone will be largest household type in
Chicago and U.S. Unknown future of social interactions, which requires
some study.
- By 2010 women are dominant segment of households (>
51%). Women are more likely to pay bills on time.
- 2 million Chicago area children are the most ethnically
diverse in the U.S. and will be forming households over the next ten
years.
- Significant change in leisure preferences. Golf will be
on a downward trend due to time commitment. Bicycling will be on an
upward trend.
- More Boomer startups by college educated – they like to
work.
- Chicago city growth will be higher than NY and LA, but
not by much. Chicago area growth will be slower than most other
metro areas. This means targeting specific segments will be more
important than ever. Concept of “average Chicagoan” or “average U.S.
citizen” becomes useless.
- New solutions (such as Zip Cars) are likely to be
introduced. Social marketing mechanisms likely to increase (> 51%
live alone and their friends are on line).
- Key future decisions: Immigration policy has a
huge impact on Chicago. Corporate HQ location decisions.
Happy motoring,
Mike
